China Must Bulk Up Its Nuclear Arsenal

 

Not a day goes by without the US raising the specter of China as an existential threat. Joining the fray, the Pentagon issued an alarming report in 2023 over China's faster expansion of its nuclear arsenal, which, it claimed, went from 400 warheads in 2022 to 500 in May 2023 and is projected to reach 1,500 by 2035.  

This is great news. China's so-called "sharp" development of nuclear weapons is overdue. A stronger nuclear stance will deter adversaries from blackmailing and launching nuclear strikes. 

To America, China's "rapid" nuclear modernization threatens the nuclear balance and poses as an "existential challenge" to its security. Upon reviewing the Pentagon report, Congress members declared that the Chinese buildup is a wake-up call to speed up the overhaul of US nuclear forces. The White House urged the Chinese government to come to the negotation table in the hope of striking a deal over arms control.

The numbers bely the American claim. The US is a nuclear-armed powerhouse, possessing 5,244 nuclear warheads, of which 1,770 are deployed on ballistic missiles and at strategic bomb and airbases in and outside the country. 

China's nuclear stockpile pales in comparison. Even with 1,000 warheads in 2030, its entire arsenal will be a paltry one-fifth of that of the US. Although abandoning its fifty-year-old policy of maintaining a small inventory of nuclear weapons, China is unlikely to aim for nuclear arms parity or near-parity. More importantly, it has not relinquished its No-First-Use policy, favoring second strikes over first ones. The US may continue to exaggerate China's nuclear threat, but its propaganda is baseless.

Underlying the American concern is that China's "fast" development of its nuclear weapons may increase the likelihood of a nuclear war between the two countries. 

It is the other way around. China's nuclear-weapons enlargement will act as a deterrence against a nuclear war. The US needs to think twice before launching a nuclear strike against China, which is rapidly strengthening its nuclear triad, consisting of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers equipped with nuclear bombs and missiles.  

China's nuclear-arms expansion is a must as a military confrontation may be unavoidable as China aims to restore its great power status in Asia whereas the US does its best to prevent such a rise. According to US war games, a conventional war may turn into a nuclear one, with the US pushing the nuclear button as a last resort. 

This doomsday scenario is highly likely if China continues to restrain its nuclear capabilities. Such weakness is, in fact, an invitation to foes to nuke China without fearing retaliatory strikes, as history has shown. 

In the 1950 Korean war, in a classical case of nuclear blackmail, US president Harry Truman stated that nuking Chinese targets was under "active consideration." To stop the Chinese forces in Korea, General McArthur intended to drop "between 30 and 50 atomic bombs" on northern China and North Korea. In 1953, president Dwight Eisenhower forced the Chinese to negotiate the end of the Korean war by threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Again, in the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the US considered using nuclear weapons against China. In all these instances, China had no nuclear weapons; it developed them only in 1964. 

By modernizing its nuclear force and accelerating the production of nuclear warheads, China dissuades the US from using the nuclear trump card. With a large increase of deployed nuclear warheads, it assures its ability to respond to nuclear attacks with nuclear retaliation.

More specifically, China's expanded nuclear capabilities will prevent conventional warfare over Taiwan or the South China Sea from deteriorating into nuclear warfare, ensuring the odds of the Chinese military prevailing over the American armed forces.

The US is also worried that China's faster-than-expected expansion of its nuclear arms will intensify the ongoing arms race in the world.

Such worry is unnecessary. With each sitting on more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, the US and Russia are unlikely to be surpassed by any nation. Developing and maintaining nuclear bombs is an expensive proposition, and that explains why China kept a small inventory until 2020 and still insists on a no-first-strike policy. Practical constraints also discourage countries such as India, Pakistan, and Israel from expanding their nuclear stockpiles on a large scale. 

If there is a nuclear arms race, China will stand to gain from it. Rather than destabilize the nuclear arms balance, China's effort to strengthen its nuclear capabilities has the effect of promoting nuclear stability in the world. The more nuclear warheads the Chinese government can muster, the more stable the nuclear balance will become. By increasing the number of its atomic weapons, China is making sure that the US will think long and hard before issuing nuclear blackmail or launching nuclear attacks.