The Russia-Ukraine War Benefits the World

 

Let’s call it what it is: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a war between two imperialist powers, the US and Russia. The longer the war lasts, the better for the world, as the protracted war undermines their respective power.

Is the conflict a clash between democracy and autocracy, as the US claims? Or is it self-defense against Western encroachment, as Russia contends? There is nothing righteous about the geopolitical tussle over which side will control Ukraine. Under the veneer of democratic freedom or pan-slavic nationalism lies the primacy of might by any means necessary.

Any rational person with some knowledge of history and geopolitics should be able to cut through the smoke screens that each belligerent uses to justify its aggresion. When America brandishes its Democracy stick, it means that its empire itches for new boundaries. When the Russian Bear plays the victim, it merely pursues its centuries-old insatiable hunger for more land.

Ten years on, the clash of titans has resulted in a stalemate, with no breakthrough in sight. The Obama administration intended to swallow Ukraine into its NATO nuclear umbrella by engineering a revolution in 2014 that toppled the pro-Russian leadership. In reaction, Putin annexed Crimea and supported the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region. In February 2022, the conflict escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, but quickly turned into a quagmire, with both the dysfunctional Russian army and Western-backed Ukrainian troops unable to achieve a strategic victory. Costing 350,000 casualties and entering its eleventh year, the tug of war seems not to go anywhere.

Far from a hunting trophy adorning the Kremlin wall or the Oval Office, Ukraine has become a bottomless pit that has been sucking the energy out of both the US and Russia. By going all out to beat the adversary, each empire manages to weaken itself. 

Biden’s vow to stand with Ukraine for "as long as it takes" has carried a heavy price tag. Since 2022, Ukraine has received more than $55 billion in military assistance from the US and $45 billion from the EU member states and other allies. Short on manpower and running a hodgepodge of Western weapons, the Ukrainian army failed miserably in its counteroffensive in 2023. American and European tanks and artillery systems could not match the Russian layered defenses on the front line. Despite the $100-billion military aid, Ukraine has little to show for its war effort. 

In the long run, the US military-industrial complex, buoyed by the huge increase in military sales, threatens the US Empire’s fiscal health. A large portion of the US military aid – weapons, military hardware, and ammunition –  sent to Ukraine goes to American defense companies to replenish the military arsenal. The US arms industry is booming as Europe purchases American weapons and hardware to counter the Russian threat. Ukraine’s bane is, seemingly, the US military-industrial complex’s boon. Yet, maintaining American global dominance is costly. The military sector feeds on deficit spending and taxpayers’ money and funnels much needed fundings away from essential social and public goods, such as crumbling infrastructure and inefficient healthcare. Propping up the Kiev regime only aggravates the $35 trillion debt in the US.

Similarly, Russia has paid a steep price for failing to take control of Ukraine in the early days of the invasion. To this date, about 150,000 of its troops have been killed, and 170,000 wounded. Its fleet of tanks, once the largest in the world, has shrunk precipitously. While making small tactical gains on the battlefield, Russia is unlikely to emerge victorious. As the recent Ukrainian invasion of the Russian Kursk region showed, the Russian army is pinned down in Ukraine, leaving Russia vulnerable to attacks. Like the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, Russia has fallen into a quagmire. 

Although growing despite Western sanctions, the Russian economy is beset with high inflation and labor shortages resulting from heavy war casualties and mass emigration. It is saddled with continuous war expenses, which are running into billions of dollars. Spending big on the military results in less money going into the private sector, sapping future economic growth. Russia’s share of the global gross domestic product is projected to slide in the next five years. Bogged down in a war without end, Russia is forced to increase military production, which aggravates economic imbalances over the long run.

The war of attrition between the US and Russia is good news for all the countries not involved in the Ukrainian treacherous battlefield. Locking horns over the southwest European Plain, and  treating Ukraine as crucial to their imperialistic interests, the two empires are less likely to bring large-scale warfare, devastation, civilians’ deaths, and environmental destruction to the other parts of the globe. While making some tactical advances in Ukraine, Russia has trouble protecting its own borders, let alone attack other European countries. Tied down in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the US is unable to pivot to Asia at full throttle, let alone provoke China into a full-blown conflagration.  

The world will be a much better, safer, and quieter place when the American and Russian empires have worn each other out with their military confrontations and profligate spending on defense. Regardless of the war outcome, the American and Russian empires have to deal with the long-term economic effects of the high cost of war. For these reasons, despite the regrettable loss of Ukrainian and Russian lives, the war in Ukraine must go on.