Four Western Myths about the Ukraine War

 

Myths kill. 

Nowhere is this truth more evident than in Ukraine, where tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have been maimed or killed on the battlefield in a war now in its third year and still ongoing. 

The Ukraine war could have been averted had politicians in the West not clung to four myths with devastating consequences.

Myth 1: Ukraine will defeat Russia.

One year into Russia's war in Ukraine, US President Biden proclaimed in Warsaw, Poland that "Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never." Exuding even more confidence, Europe Commission President von der Leyen declared that "I'm deeply convinced that Ukraine will win this war." 

Of all the lies about the war in its third year, this one is the hoax of the 21st century.

To put it bluntly, Ukraine has no plausible pathway to victory against Russia. Slightly smaller than Texas, utterly dependent on Western aid, it is simply no match for its Russian neighbor with 1,226 miles of shared border.  Russia's military capabilities outnumber Ukraine's, by any measure. The Russian economy has shown great resilience in the face of severe Western sanctions, maintaining strong exports of crude oil and oil products to China, India, and the rest of the world.

Putin's Russia is neither the fragile Tsarist Empire teetering on the brink of social revolution nor the Soviet Union with a sclerotic bureaucracy and economy about to implode. In fact, the Ukraine war and Western sanctions have made Putin even more popular in his home country; his approval rating hovers around 85%.

The West has been rooting for Ukraine, framing its resistance as a David vs. Goliath struggle and trumpeting the eventual triumph of the underdog over the giant oppressor. In the case of Ukraine, this feel-good narrative was never meant to be. The vast disparity between Ukraine and Russia, geography, and the West's fear of WWIII make sure that Ukraine will not defeat Russia.

Myth 2: The US will stand by Ukraine for as long as necessary.

In his rallying cry against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Biden stated in 2023 that "We will not waver. I mean that. Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken. We will stand for liberty and freedom today, tomorrow, and for as long as it takes."

 Albeit catchy, Biden's for-as-long-as-it-takes.soundbite fails to reflect the complexities of international politics. As notable statesmen, such as Lord Palmerston, Charles de Gaulle, and Henry Kissinger, opined, nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

Superpowers' resolute stances can vaporize, as recent events have demonstrated. Upon returning to the White House in 2025, President Trump repudiated Biden's pro-Ukraine policy. In a radical break with his European allies, he initiated peace negotiations with Putin, conceding that Ukraine would not join NATO, and allowing Russia to retain the territory it had seized. Trump and the neocons view Ukraine as an obstacle to rapprochement with Russia, which they see as vital in the strategic competition with China. 

The truth is that small, weak nations are highly vulnerable to the shifting interests of great powers. Ukraine is not the first case. JFK pledged to support South Vietnam against Communism "for as long as it takes", only to see the US withdraw its troops under Nixon in 1973. Under George W. Bush, the US occupied Afghanistan and vowed to "help the Afghan people build a free society," but Biden's unconditional withdrawal of American troops led to the collapse of the Afghan puppet government and the Taliban's return to power.

As Kissinger put it aptly, "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."

Myth 3: The Ukraine war is a fight between democracy and autocracy.

Biden consistently portrayed Ukraine as "the great battle for freedom: a battle between democracy and autocracy, between liberty and repression..." Similarly, von der Leyen proclaimed that "Democracy is standing up against autocracy and therefore we stand as one."

These grand declarations, rehashed by Western pundits of all sorts, have pervaded the mass media and hardened into a catechism as the conflict drags on: Good will overcome evil; democracy, over autocracy.

The lofty rhetoric against tyranny masks a stark reality. The Ukraine war is the quintessential proxy war between two imperialist powers vying for control of Europe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has been expanding NATO to Central and Eastern Europe, absorbing countries formerly under the Soviet sphere of influence. Russia can not tolerate NATO gobbling up Ukraine, as the flatland between the two countries means that Russia is vulnerable to invasions. 

Democracy is a beautiful word, but it is used as a veneer for advancing geopolitical interests.

Myth 4: Russia will attack other European countries if Russia wins the Ukraine war.

Some American and European politicians have warned repeatedly that a Russian victory in Ukraine will encourage Putin to target other Eastern European countries. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk even raised the specter of a "real and serious" threat of global war.

These claims heighten fears about incessant Russian aggression, but the reality on the ground tells a different story.

Three years into the Ukraine war, the Russian army has proven its ineptness beyond any doubt. It has managed to conquer only 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. It is short on manpower, equipment, and morale. It has suffered tens of thousands of casualties in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance and Western aid. As a sign of desperation, Putin has enlisted North Korean soldiers to help recover some parts of the Kursk region taken by Ukrainian troops. 

With Russia's armed forces trapped in the Ukrainian quagmire, Russia has no realistic chance whatsoever of launching military campaigns against other Eastern European countries on a large scale. All assertions to the contrary are preposterous propaganda.

Taken together, the four myths debunked above reveal three critical takeaways about geopolitics.

First, buffer states that serve as arenas for superpower jostling are better off playing both sides in order to protect their own national interests. Aligning with one side over another can lead to calamitous consequences. 

Ukraine is a textbook example. Having thrown itself into the arms of the West after the Maidan Revolution in 2014, Ukraine triggered the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war and the subsequent Russian invasion in 2022. Now, Ukraine has become a country sustained by external support and begging for more— battered, with high civilian and military casualties, and widespread  destruction of property and infrastructure. 

Becoming a pawn in superpowers' rivalry is irrational and contravenes one's interests.

Second, the US has waged countless wars, by proxy or directly, in the name of freedom and democracy. Those two words are part of the smokescreen for America's insatiable thirst for global supremacy. The US's primary motivation is to maintain its control over the world and thereby to quash any challenges that arise. 

Third, rooting for the US or Russia is misguided. Both deserve no sympathy. In their incessant quest for geopolitical dominance, these two superpowers destabilize the world, resulting in widespread devastation and loss of life. In this regard, American democracy is no different from Russian autocracy.

The world must unite in pursuit of a common objective: to permanently neutralize the destabilizers.