China: What Kind of Superpower in 2030?

The year 2030 will be a historic year. China, the second largest economy in terms of GDP,  will overtake the US, the uncontested economic juggernaut since 1890. In their heydays, either the Soviet Union, Germany, or Japan came in second, but neither one of them ever came close to dethrone the American powerhouse. That China, a once backward country with 70% of its workforce in agriculture in 1978, will succeed where other nations failed is an impressive feat. 

China's ascension as an economic superpower carries great significance to the word. The center of world economy will shift from the US and Europe to China and parts of Asia. Many countries depend on importing from and exporting to China. With 30% of the world manufacturing output, China has risen as the world's factory, producing Made in China goods to meet rising global demand. 

In 2030, will China replace the US as the hegemonic superpower?

The answer is a resounding no.

Nor will it be a hegemonic superpower in 2050, but if all goes well, China may become a leading superpower in 2080, sixty years from now (2022).

For the foreseeable future, China will have to contend with the 800-pound gorilla, the US, which is the unquestionable hegemonic superpower. The balance of power between China and the US remains in favor of the latter in several respects.

Adhering to the "no first use" policy with nuclear weapons, China's nuclear arsenal and delivery capability are not match to those of the US. Reportedly, it possesses no more than 250 nuclear warheads, a paltry number that pales in comparison with the American 3,750 or Russian 4,470 warheads. It is reported that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal and may reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Still, even with that projected total, China would only have amassed less than a third of the US stockpiles. In times of conflict, especially in a scenario in which the US would not hesitate to resort to brute force, it is hard to conceive how the People's Liberation Army can prevail. 

As to conventional military strength, China is outmatched by the US in defense spending and global military presence. The US is the only country on earth that has established 800 military bases in 80 countries and territories, across all seven continents. In Japan and South Korea, the US has 179 bases and almost half of all US troops deployed overseas.  As of 2021, the American defense budget exceeds that of the next eleven countries combined. Although having ramping up military expenditures from $18 billion in 1989 to $261 billion in 2019, China spends three times less than the US. In contrast to the ubiquitous American military presence in the world, China has so far only one military base in Djibouti, a tiny country in the Horn of Africa. Barring a miracle, it is improbable that China's conventional military can be on a par with its American counterpart by 2030 or even 2080.

While the military is an instrument of nation-state competition, economics is the ultimate factor in shaping and maintaining the world order. In this regard, eight years from now, by 2030, China will not have ascended to the core of the world system, which consists of the most industrialized and wealthiest nations, most of which are located in Europe and Northern America. 

Though an industrial powerhouse and world's largest trader, China has a way to go before it can move from low-end, low-technology to high-end, high-technology manufacturing. Producing or assembling video-game consoles, electric toasters, baby strollers, and other consumer goods has helped China run trade surplus, which reached $535 billion in 2021 (more than twice Germany's amount). 

However, to become a center of high-end manufacturing, China needs to move up the global supply chains. For over a decade, the Chinese government has been pouring money into developing its own commercial airliner, the Comac C919. While an example of China's attempt to develop high-end and high-technology manufacturing, the aircraft is mostly made up of American, French, and German components, such as the engine, flight control system, wing anti-icing, and even tires. Catching up to the US, Germany, or Japan is possible, but it will take at least three to five decades.  

One of the biggest hurdle China faces in its quest to superpower status is its integration into a world economy dominated by the US dollar. The share of Chinese renminbi in international payments has hovered around 2% for decades; so is the share of global foreign exchange reserves held in renminbi-denominated assets. In the monetary realm, China is dwarfed by the US. The US dollar accounts for 88% of world foreign exchange transactions, a share that has been stable for two decades. With the dollar as the world's main reserve currency, the US can wield overwhelming power by blocking China from the international trade system (SWIFT). In such a scenario, China's export-oriented economy would be severely damaged. As of 2022, even though the Chinese government has been promoting its digital currency, the e-RMB, most experts agree that the digital yuan is unlikely to challenge the US dollar.

There is no question that China is a rising superpower. However, to rival or surpass the US, China has a long way to go and needs to meet these conditions:

        1. Reaching nuclear parity with or gaining ascendancy over the US

        2. Acquiring similar conventional military strength

        3. Ranking as a core country in the world system

        4. Developing high-end, high-technology manufacturing

        5. Finding an alternative to the dominance of US dollar

 Those American hawks who chant that China poses an existential threat to the US simply distort the facts, for their political gains. Although its GDP may have surpassed that of the US by 2030, China will still play catch-up. Currently and for the next two to three decades, compared to the US, China is and will be outgunned militarily, outmatched in high-technology industries, and outclassed in a world economy controlled by the core countries.