China Is a Geopolitical Dwarf

Vector Vectors by Vecteezy

China has the numbers on its side. The second largest economy in the world, it is poised to surpass the US economy in 2030. An industrial giant, it accounts for almost one-third of the world's manufacturing output, leading the US by over 10 percentage points. A global trade powerhouse, China is the largest partner of two-thirds of countries (128 out of 190), overtaking the long-standing US. 

Yet, despite its phenomenal transformation from a peasant-based to an industrial society in merely 44 years, China has remained a geopolitical dwarf, unable to project its military power beyond its territory in East Asia, let alone in the Pacific or Southeast Asia. Its geopolitical situation looks dire especially in East Asia, where the US has put in place the containment policy with its Asian allies. 

China's major geopolitical weakness is its inability to reclaim the island of Taiwan, a renegade province that lies 100 miles from the mainland. The island, now under the control of Taiwan separatists, has been a US client state, rejecting peaceful reunification with China. As long as China fails to bring Taiwan to its fold, it will be incapable to control the South China Sea, cut off major ship lanes, and threaten the US and Japan by blocking trades and supplies at will. 

Without effective control of Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, China is hampered in its drive to build a truly blue-water navy. While the Chinese navy has been undergoing a spectacular transformation, becoming the world's largest navy with 355 ships and counting, it is unable to set up naval bases on the island that can be used to expand its naval power toward the Pacific Ocean. Nor can the Chinese navy stop the US and its allies from conducting their so-called freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea..

The Chinese government claims to have sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over both the Taiwan island and the Taiwan Strait. The sad truth is that after 73 years of rule on the mainland, and breakneck economic pace since 1978, the People's Republic of China has managed to do neither.

Even more damning is China's abject failure to make a dent in the massive US military presence in its own backyard and in the Pacific. The US possesses seven military bases and 55,000- troops in Japan. Its fighter jets can reach China and Taiwan in one hour from its two Air Force bases located in Okinawa. In South Korea, the US has established 15 military bases staffed by 28,500 soldiers. Attack submarines and strategic bombers, stationed in Guam (which is part of the Second Island Chain in the Island Chain Strategy), can be mobilized quickly in a China-US conflict.

If the US goes to war against China, the US military forces, literally at China's door, can attack China's military and civilian targets on the mainland, its navy and submarine forces in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea, as well as stifle major ship lanes. 

The US has launched multiple initiatives to contain China. It has enlisted Australia, a far-flung continent in Oceania. Thanks to the AUKUS pact signed by the US, the United Kingdom, and Australia in 2021, Australia will acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines and other military technologies. The goal of AUKUS is clear: the US wants to expand a US-led submarine force against the ever-expanding Chinese navy. 

To secure its hegemony in Asia, the US has been promoting the Quad security grouping (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) that cuts across regional divides, actively enlisting India, strengthening military ties with the ASAN countries, proposing to establish two new military bases (one across a strait from Taiwan and the other facing the South China Sea) in the Philippines, and encouraging its European allies to send warships to the Pacific.

In response to the escalating US geopolitical pressures, China has made impressive progress in modernizing its military and strengthening its ability to sharply reduce the ability of the US and its allies to move freely in the nearby seas in wartime. 

However, the undeniable fact is that China is hemmed in by the US and unable to become a regional hegemon. It has failed to snatch the entire South China Sea, impose its sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait, and reduce US and Japanese influence in the East China Sea. Though making great strides in creating a blue-water navy and some bases in the South China Sea, China lacks an extensive network of naval bases that are essential to project power and deny sea access. With the growing US containment, China is and will be geopolitically handicapped for years to come.

This analysis of China' geopolitical situation begs a question: How can China break the US policy of containment?

One can dismiss a scenario outright: For some domestic or geopolitical reasons, the US decides to abandon its Pivot to Asia policy and remove its military bases, ending its 50-year-old containment of China. In a world where states compete for dominance, this possibility belongs to the realm of pure fantasy. The only global superpower, the US is determined to maintain its supremacy, as evidenced by its Pivot to Asia and other maneuvers with its allies. To use the White House's words regarding its presence in the Middle East, the US "is not going anywhere" in Asia.

Another equally far-fetched scenario is China's throwing in the towel. In this scenario, due to internal strife or economic difficulties, China turns inward, leaving US hegemony in Asia intact. This is another pipe dream, cherished by China doomsayers. In fact, China's ruling elite and citizens agree that Taiwan should be reunified with China. As China wants to regain its leading position in Asia, it will keep tussling with the US and its allies for decades to come.

The only way for China to break the US policy of containment is to wage wars, unfortunately. The US is intransigent in its aggressive containment of China. It plays a zero-sum game until China is defeated in its attempts to secure its national interests. Recently, the US has managed to turn NATO, an Euro-centric defense organization, against China. When the time comes, China will have to fight the US and its allies over Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and  the East China Sea. Twenty to thirty years from now (2040-2050), China will have stronger capabilities to conduct warfare aimed at completely ousting the US from East Asia, and possibly from the entire Asia. 

Will China succeed in defeating the US and its allies and becoming a geopolitical superpower? No one can predict the future. However, the conditions for a geopolitically stronger China are riper as the years go by. China will become the economic juggernaut by 2030. Its industrial base is able to support modern warfare. It is making technological progress. And there is the will of the Chinese people to never repeat the century of humiliation at the hands of Western imperialist powers.

War is anathema to public opinion. Yet, in the real world, when one state's military is at the door of another state, the only solution for the besieged state is to fight until its national security interests are fulfilled. Such is the case of the China-US impeding military conflicts. China needs to fight through the military encirclement in its own backyard, or it will remain shackled to its geopolitical dwarfism.