War Will Do China Good

 

The US Empire has spoken: China poses an existential threat to American global hegemony and must be subjugated at all costs. 

The wrath of the world overlord, which has descended on China since 2017, continues unabated. With bipartisan congressional support, the White House under Trump and Biden has waged trade wars, wielded an avalanche of sanctions, rallied its allies in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, and conducted relentless smearing campaigns worldwide, with no end in sight.

Taking it up a notch, Biden has been actively preparing for war against China. He crafted the AUKUS security pact with Australia, which will receive eight nuclear powered submarines, gained access to military bases in the Philippines, and promoted military cooperation between Japan and South Korea.

Rather than cower in fear, China should embrace military confrontations with the US and its allies, under the right circumstances. Undoubtedly, the costs and risks associated with the use of force are high, but the potential benefits are huge.

For over 74 years, the US has been standing in the way of China's reunification with Taiwan. Having lost the civil war to the Chinese Communist Party in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island with his remaining troops. Since then, the US has prevented China from taking over the island and encouraged de facto independence by selling weapons and increasing military aid. As Biden indicated on several occasions in 2022, the US will respond militarily if China uses force to "invade"Taiwan. With the separatist party in power, the likelihood of peaceful reunification through negotiations with mainland China is nil.

War over Taiwan is the only way for China to complete reunification. If successful, China will finally regain sovereignty over a renegade province. Taiwan, a strategic location at the intersection of the East and South China Seas in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean, will afford China the ability to control the major ship lanes and cut off trades and supplies when needed. Chinese warships and submarines will be able to station at the naval bases on the island, considerably strengthening China's chokehold over the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait from both sides. 

But recuperating Taiwan is just the beginning.

Since the end of WWII, after defeating the Japanese Empire, the US has reigned supreme in Asia. Its navy sails the seas unchallenged, its military bases dot the so-called "Indo-Pacific" region, and its network of client-states buttresses its containment of China.

The only way for China to break out of the US containment is to destroy it once for all. In addition to recovering Taiwan, China will have to wrest control of the Bashi Channel from the Philippines and the Miyako Strait from Japan, two critical chokepoints for the Chinese navy. This means that it will have to go to war with the US, Japan, the Philippines and other lackey states such as South Korea and Australia. If successful, China will overcome the US first island chain of containment. It will have to compel the US to abandon all its military bases in Japan and South Korea and force the Philippines to revoke US access to its military bases. 

That is a tall order to fill, given the array of forces the US has aligned against China.

Yet, by achieving these goals, China will succeed in ridding East Asia of the US political and military preeminence and becoming the local hegemon, at last. Then, its local hegemony will open the way for the Chinese navy to turn into a true blue-water navy, nibbling away the remaining two US island chains and operating unimpededly in the Pacific Ocean.

The ideal outcomes for China are to reunify with Taiwan and send the US military home through peaceful means. However, understandably, entrenched in Asia to protect its "national security," the US will never relinquish its power without a fight. 

Contrary to the sizzling headlines, China has no intention of reclaiming Taiwan militarily in the next five to ten years. Coming from behind after a century of humiliation at the hands of Western powers and abject poverty as well as a decade of utter chaos during the Cultural Revolution, China needs time to strengthen and expand its military and reduce its reliance on Western technology. 

Nor is the current balance of power in Asia in China's favor, especially in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US has mobilized the support of all its allies, including the NATO members, to its anti-China cause. 

When China deems its military ready for war and sees an opening in the geopolitical landscape, war will break out over Taiwan and the American island chain containment. China will certainly incur tremendous risks and losses for taking on the 800-pound gorilla and its minions, but purging Asia of US imperialism will go down in history as one of the momentous cataclysms in the world. 

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